Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 8, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)…is located about 980 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California – Last Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maria)…is located approximately 412 NM southeast of Yokosuka, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia) -Last Advisory

EMILIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed and turn westward is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical remnant low is expected to dissipate by the end of this weekend.

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system will be possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maria)

According to the JTWC Warning number 9, sustained winds are 65 knots with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical storm 06W (Maria), as a well organized and symmetrical system, with a low level circulation center (llcc) which is fully obscured by a central dense overcast). Spiral bands of deep convection are present in all but one quadrant – the north westerly sector is free of convection.

The system has been tracking north-northeast, with the primary steering influence from a subtropical ridge to the east of TS Maria.

TS 06W (Maria) is currently forecast to
continue tracking north-northeast until tau 24, followed by a slight north-westerly turn, driven by a development of an extended upper level ridge to the north of the system. At 72 hours TS Maria is expected to begin further turning west, on a heading generally towards Misawa, as a developing deep-layer ridge develops over the Sea of Japan and builds eastward to the north of the system. The current forecast calls for landfall southeast of Misawa shortly after 96 hours, with the system crossing to the west coast of northern Honshu by 120 hours.

Tropical cyclone development conditions will remain favorable for the next 36 to 48 hours, with low wind shear, good poleward and equatorward outflow, high ocean heat content, warm sea surface temperatures. During the brief window up to 48 hours, steady intensification is expected, to a peak of at least 80 knots. depending on how quickly the vortex can consolidate and the track speed, a period of rapid intensification remains possible.

After 48 hours, increasing shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures and a rapid reduction of upper-level outflow will mark the beginning of a general weakening trend. After landfall, movement across the rugged terrain of northern Honshu will induce more rapid weakening, with the system forecast to be a weak tropical depression by 120 hours.