Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, August 7, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)…is located about 660 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Post-Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fabio)…is located about 735 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California – Last Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maria)…is located approximately 574 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)

EMILIA ABSORBING FABIO BUT ALSO WEAKENING

Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Emilia is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by the end of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

Post-Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fabio) – Last Advisory

FABIO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 16 mph (26
km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maria)

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds are 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a developing central dense overcast feature with improved convective banding over the southern semicircle.

Upper-level analysis indicates a robust poleward outflow channel into an upper-level low over northern Honshu, with strong equatorward outflow and low vertical wind shear.

Tropical depression 06W is forecast to turn sharply northeastward then gradually accelerate northward as the ridge builds to the east through 36 hours. After 12 hours, the system will track northward along a north-south oriented ridge and intensify quickly to a peak intensity of 55 knots by 48 hours. There is a possibility that the peak intensity could reach minimal typhoon strength. After 72 hours, the system will turn north-northeastward while slowing as it rounds the northwest periphery of the ridge.

The polar front is located north of 45N, with no deep major shortwave trough indicated in the models to induce a recurvature track. Therefore, extra-tropical transition is assessed as very unlikely through the forecast period. However, interaction with a subtropical trough and upper-level convergence is anticipated, which will serve to weaken the system after 72 hours. Additionally, sea surface temperature values will decrease north of 40N and dry air entrainment will commence, which will aid in the eventual dissipation of the system.