By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 246 NM northeast of Davao, Philippines
According to the JTWC, animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image, display some organized banding wrapping into a partially exposed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates overall favorable conditions defined by moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, being offset by fair poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.
The ECMWF and GFS models are in general agreement on the westward track of invest 91W and despite the overall favorable environment limited time over water before making landfall over Mindanao means the system is not expected to reach warning criteria in the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.