By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 177 NM east-southeast of Puerto Princesa, Philippines
According to the JTWC, animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict disorganized convection in the northeast and southwest quadrants, wrapping into a weakly defined low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions defined by warm sea surface temperature, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and fair poleward outflow.
Global models are in general agreement on the westward track of invest 91W and despite the marginally favorable environment, indicates the system is not expected to reach warning criteria in the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.