By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 396 NM east-southeast of Puerto Princesa, Philipppines
According to the JTWC, animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and microwave images, show disorganized convection wrapping into a partially exposed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates overall favorable conditions defined by low to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, and fair poleward outflow.
The ECMWF and GFS models are in general agreement on the westward track of invest 91W and despite the overall favorable environment, limited time over water and making landfall over Mindanao, indicates the system is not expected to reach warning criteria in the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.