By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94B…which is located approximately 512 NM east of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts an area of mid-level turning with flaring convection is over a broad low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates invest 94B is in an unfavorable environment with little upper level outflow and high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by favorable, warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in agreement that invest 94B will track eastward toward Myanmar over the next 24-48 hours with little to no development as a tropical system.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains Low.