By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
North Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94B…which is located approximately 181 NM southwest of Phuket, Thailand.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection over a low level
Environmental analysis depicts generally favorable conditions for development with robust poleward outflow, low (15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
However, global models are in agreement that 94B will track east-northeast while remaining below warning criteria as it interacts with the mountains of Sumatra.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.