By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
North Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94B…which is located approximately 235 NM southwest of Phuket, Thailand.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts broad deep convection over a low level circulation. Recent scatterometry data shows 25 to 30 knot winds surrounding a low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis depicts marginally favorable conditions for development with robust poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high (15-25 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global models are in agreement that 94B will have a general eastward track into the north-western tip of Sumatra.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is Low.