By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B…which is located approximately 281 NM north-northeast of Port Blair, India
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows scattered and disorganized convection with a weak and broad low level circulation.
The system lies in an area that is moderately conducive for development, with fair equatorward outflow, low-moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear offset by warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 91B will have slow development as it tracks northward over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.