By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B…which is located approximately 490 NM southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows large, disorganized clusters of deep
convection flaring over a broad low-level circulation. A color composite microwave image shows a broad, weakly defined low-level circulation center with poorly-organized deep convective organization.
Environmental analysis is marginally favorable with developing poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear.
Numerical models continue to indicate slow development over the next few days as the disturbance tracks generally eastward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.