By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90B…which is located approximately 418 NM southeast of Chennai, India
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows an obscured but well-defined low level circulation with deep convection on the northwestern periphery.
The overall environment is marginal as 90B is an area of moderate to high (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by warm sea temperatures and strong poleward outflow.
Global models agree that the system will track west-northwest gradually consolidating and strengthening over the next 36-48 hours. As it reaches the northern portion of Sri Lanka and the southeast coast of India, the window for 90B to reach tropical storm strength is limited…with global models indicating it will reach land at roughly the same time.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.