Tropical Cyclone 11S / Tropical Cyclone 12 (Elvis) / Invest 96P – Pacific
Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, January 29, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11S is located approximately 534 NM south of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis) is located approximately 271 NM southeast of Europa Island

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11S

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 11S with a well-defined, exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). Persistent convection is placed over the southwestern periphery of the circulation, revealing the tilted nature of the vortex.

Environmental analysis indicates that 11S is in a marginally favorable environment for development characterized by moderate poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by dry air to the west of the llcc and moderate (15-20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear.

11S is forecast to track southwestward along the northwestern periphery of the str through 36 hours. After 36 hours, a second ridge is expected to build south of the system and drive it more westward. Around 96 hours, 11S will begin to round the northwestern periphery of that ridge and track southwestward through the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 11S is forecast to slightly intensify over the next 12 hours to around 40 knots. After 12 hours, intensity is forecast to maintain through 48 hours. The primary limiting factor is the tilted nature of the vortex and persistent moderate easterly shear. These two factors will inhibit any further intensification during this time.

Around 72 hours, models vary significantly on the nature of the vortex alignment. Depending on how much the system can align, an intensification trend could ensue. If it remains tilted it could simply fall apart. As for now, the JTWC forecast calls for moderate intensification after 72 hours due to the fact that easterly shear will continue to be a factor.

 

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis)

According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 12S (Elvis) with a well-defined, exposed low-level circulation center and convection trailing off to the south. 12S has exhibited more tropical characteristics over the past 6 hours, particularly regarding the symmetry of the wind field. Another image reveals that the llcc has tightened up and shows 40 knot winds within 30 NM of the assessed center.
Environmental analysis indicates that 12S is in a marginal environment characterized by strong poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear and dry air within the western sector of the system.
12S is forecast to stay quasi-stationary (qs) over the next 12 hours as it remains placed within the competing steering environment. After 12 hours, the ridge to the east will begin to take over as the primary steering mechanism, driving the system southeastward. However, there is some discrepancy between the qs timeline between models and there is a possibility that the vortex remains qs longer.
Regarding intensity, 12S is forecast to maintain intensity over the next 36 hours due to the favorable sea surface temperatures and strong poleward outflow fighting the shear and dry air. After 36 hours, the shear begins to rise to around 30 knots and sea surface temperatures drop, causing weakening.
At the same time, 12S is forecast to begin transitioning into a subtropical cyclone as it begins to interact with a branch of the upper-level jet. Completion of subtropical transition is expected around 48 hours.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96P, which is located approximately 102 NM east of Cairns, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a disorganized low-level circulation (llc) with diffuse convection. Another image reveals that the llc is no longer closed with predominantly easterlies flowing on shore now. A surface observation from Cairns Airport shows there has been a steady income of shifting 210-070 winds of 3-10 knots over the past 12 hours.
Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for development with low vertical wind shear of 10-15 knots, good equatorward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global deterministic and ensemble models portray gradual model development along the coast, south of Cairns, over the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.