Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, January 29, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 11S is located approximately 534 NM south of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis) is located approximately 271 NM southeast of Europa Island
Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 11S
According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 11S with a well-defined, exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). Persistent convection is placed over the southwestern periphery of the circulation, revealing the tilted nature of the vortex.
Environmental analysis indicates that 11S is in a marginally favorable environment for development characterized by moderate poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by dry air to the west of the llcc and moderate (15-20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear.
11S is forecast to track southwestward along the northwestern periphery of the str through 36 hours. After 36 hours, a second ridge is expected to build south of the system and drive it more westward. Around 96 hours, 11S will begin to round the northwestern periphery of that ridge and track southwestward through the remainder of the forecast period.
Regarding intensity, 11S is forecast to slightly intensify over the next 12 hours to around 40 knots. After 12 hours, intensity is forecast to maintain through 48 hours. The primary limiting factor is the tilted nature of the vortex and persistent moderate easterly shear. These two factors will inhibit any further intensification during this time.
Around 72 hours, models vary significantly on the nature of the vortex alignment. Depending on how much the system can align, an intensification trend could ensue. If it remains tilted it could simply fall apart. As for now, the JTWC forecast calls for moderate intensification after 72 hours due to the fact that easterly shear will continue to be a factor.
Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis)
According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots
Southwest Pacific Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96P, which is located approximately 102 NM east of Cairns, Australia