Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, February 20, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active tropical cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 212 NM north of Rowley Shoals Atoll, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts persistent deep convection over the obscured low-level circulation. Another pass also reveals a consolidating llc, with observed 20-25 knots within the southern and western quadrants.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for further development with low to moderate vertical wind shear of 10-15 knots, good poleward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

However, although the environment is relatively favorable, the deterministic and ensemble models are portraying weak development over the next 24-48 hours, with an expected southwest track and intensities ranging from 25-30 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 93P, which is located approximately 229 NM northeast of Cairns, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation with flaring convection along the northeastern periphery of the system.

Upper level analysis reveals a moderate environment for further development with low to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, weak upper-level outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement overall in terms of intensity and a southeastward track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 122 NM west-southwest of Niue

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts intensifying and increasingly curved convection obscuring the consolidating low-level circulation northeast of Niue, along the south pacific convergence zone.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for development with low to moderate vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots, moderate poleward upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement portraying strong development and a southeastward track over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. 

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 613 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an elongated low level circulation with disorganized convection just north of the center beginning to consolidate along the south pacific convergence zone.

Upper-level analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment moving forward with the weak upper level outflow being the main hindrance currently working against the system.
Meanwhile, the warm sea surface temperatures and moderate (20-25 knots) vertical wind shear are helping develop 94P.

The global model guidance is in very good agreement on a southern track, with the GFS being the most aggressive having gale force winds from the north within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.