Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, February 21, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active tropical cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 436 NM west-northwest of Broome, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts persistent deep convection over the obscured low level circulation (llc). A ascat metop-b pass also reveals a consolidating llc, with observed 20-25 knots within the southern and western quadrants.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for further development with low to moderate vertical wind shear (vws) of 15-20 knots, good poleward upper-level
outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

However, although the environment is relatively favorable, the deterministic and ensemble models are portraying weak development over the next 24-48 hours, with an expected southwest track and intensities ranging from 25-30 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 93P, which is located approximately 261 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a well defined, consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) with deep flaring convection developing in the vicinity and just east of the llcc. A ascat metop-b scatterometery pass reveals strong 25-30 knot winds wrapping into the llcc and surface observations from Willis Island (approximately 85 NM to the south) indicate sustained easterly winds of 30 knots.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 93P is in a favorable environment for further development with very warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, and good poleward outflow flowing south into a mid-latitude trough to the south.

Global models are in good agreement that the system will track generally eastward while rapidly developing over the next 24-36 hours. Both the gfs and ecmwf ensemble are also in good agreement with the east-southeast track of 93P through the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 220 NM southeast of Niue

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad area of rotation with a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc) beginning to undergo a subtropical transition. Over the past 12 hours, the llcc has moved away from the north-south oriented band of convection to the east-southeast of the llcc. A ascat-b scatterometery pass reveals 35-40 knot winds wrapping into the llcc from the east, consistent with an earlier pass showing a similar wind field.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 92P is currently in a marginally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and good outflow aloft. However, as this system continues to track to the southeast it begins to interact with cooler sea surface temperatures within the next 12-24 hours, as well as entering an area of increased wind shear in excess of 30-40 knots and strong westerlies aloft.

Global models are in good agreement that 92P will continue to track southeastward as a subtropical low. JTWC will continue to closely monitor Invest 92P for signs of tropical transition.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 451 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a quickly consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) with persistent convective activity in the southern and western quadrants. A scatterometery pass reveals 20-25 knot winds beginning to wrap more in to the llcc, with wind fields of 25-30 knots to the north and south approximately 100 NM from the llcc.

Environmental analysis indicates that 94P is in a favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low (less than 15 knots) vertical wind shear, and strong poleward outflow aloft.

Global models are in agreement with the potential rapid development and general southward track over the next 24 hours. The gfs and ecmwf ensembles are both in slight agreement that Invest 94P will track in a general southeastward direction in the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.