By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97S…which is located approximately 20 NM north of Mornington Island, Australia
According to the JTWC, animated enhanced infrared satellite, composite radar reflectivity from ABOM, depict a broad and grossly elongated low-level circulation that stretches across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. The main convection is sheared southeastward of the circulation center.
Environmental analysis indicates marginal conditions for development with very warm sea surface temperatures and robust poleward outflow, offset by moderate (15-20 knot) relative vertical wind shear and close proximity to land.
Global models are in good agreement that the system will track east-southeastward over the remainder of the Gulf of Carpenteria, across Cape York Peninsula, and exit into the Coral Sea near Cairns within the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains Medium.