Tropical Cyclone 13L (Leslie) / Tropical Cyclone 14L (Milton) / Invest 93L – Atlantic
Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, October 9, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Leslie)…located about 945 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Milton)…located about 30 miles south of Orlando, Florida

 

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Leslie)

LESLIE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY

According to the NHC Advisory number 31

Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast with gradual acceleration is forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie could briefly become a major hurricane tomorrow morning before rapid weakening begins and continues through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). Saildrone SD-1036 located about 60 miles (95 km) northwest of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust up to 66 mph (106 km/h).

 

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Milton)

VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA…FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES REMAIN IN EFFECT

According to the NHC Advisory number 21A

Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part of the Florida during the next few hours, and emerge off the east coast of Florida around sunrise.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida this morning. After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). A sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph
(122 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather station at Cape
Canaveral. A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph (121 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International Airport. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h was recently reported at Melbourne International Airport. A sustained wind of 33 mph (53 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Orlando International Airport.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Anna Maria Island, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…4-7 ft
Charlotte Harbor…4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL…3-5 ft
Tampa Bay…3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 ft
St. Johns River…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula today. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area through midday today.Tropical storm conditions in the tropical storm warning area in Florida and will spread to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts later this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely this morning across parts of central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast today and along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a tropical wave located over the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

>>> Southwestern Atlantic:

Invest 93L

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force low pressure
system located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are no longer conducive for
further development while the system moves east-northeastward, passing to the south of Bermuda today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours….low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0 percent