Current Snapshot
For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE
By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, October 8, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Leslie)…located about 1060 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Milton)…located about 360 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Leslie)
LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER AND COULD INTENSIFY MORE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
According to the NHC Advisory number 27
Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual
slowdown and turn northward and then north-northeastward is anticipated over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid weakening by Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Milton)
MILTON FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE…WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS AFTERNOON
According to the NHC Advisory number 16A
Milton is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…10-15 ft Tampa Bay…10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor…6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for some limited development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday into Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent
>>> Southwestern Atlantic:
Invest 93L
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas
continue to become better organized. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent