Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 9, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 06L (Francine)…which is located about 420 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana

Tropical Cyclone 06L (Francine)

FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON…STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST

Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow north-northwest motion is expected through Tuesday morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
through Tuesday, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane early Tuesday, with
significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far
northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi into Thursday
morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border…2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX…1-3 ft
Galveston Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some over-topping of local levees.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions..

>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days with a strong tropical wave currently located just offshore of the western coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

>>> Central Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 92L

An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight development during the next couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during that time while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent