Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 8, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 06L…which is located about 550 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana

Tropical Cyclone 06L

TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS…INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY MID-WEEK

The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday.

On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week, while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

>>> Central Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 92L

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic have changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during that time while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, the system should begin moving more westward at around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent