Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 30, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 11L (Joyce)…located about 970 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands – Last Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Kirk)…located about 860 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Cyclone 11L (Joyce) – Last Advisory

JOYCE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC

According to the NHC Advisory number 15

The remnants are moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). The remnants of Joyce are expected to merge with a mid-latitude trough and accelerate northeastward during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Kirk)

KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

According to the NHC Advisory number 6

Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and could become a major hurricane on Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 91L

Satellite wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually increase in association with the system, and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

>>> Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next several days while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent