Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 29, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Isaac)…located about 575 miles northwest of the Azores

Tropical Cyclone 11L (Joyce)…located about 975 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Cyclone 12L…located about 585 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Issac)

LARGE SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF IMPACTING THE AZORES

According to the NHC Advisory number 16

Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn towards the north-northeast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and continued weakening is forecast over the next few days.

Isaac is forecast to become an extra-tropical cyclone on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and a large wind fetch from a
deep-layer trough will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 11L (Joyce)

JOYCE GRADUALLY WEAKENING

According to the NHC Advisory number 10

Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north anticipated on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Joyce is likely to become a tropical depression on Monday and weaken into a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 12L

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC…COULD BECOME A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK

According to the NHC Advisory number 1

The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so followed by a faster rate of intensification by the middle portion of this week. The depression could become a hurricane by Wednesday.

>>> Eastern Atlantic:

A low-latitude tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

>>> Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent