Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, September 28, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Isaac)…located about 625 miles west-northwest of the Azores

Tropical Cyclone 11L (Joyce)…located about 1030 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Issac)

ISAAC CONTINUES WEAKENING

According to the NHC Advisory number 13

Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts, and continued weakening is expected over the next few days. Isaac is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night or early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and a large wind fetch from a
deep-layer trough will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 11L (Joyce)

JOYCE EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE DAYS

According to the NHC Advisory number 7

Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Sunday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

>>> Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

>>> Eastern and and Central Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 90L

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent