Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 23, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Potential Tropical Cyclone 09L…located about 100 miles southwest of Grand Cayman

>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

Potential Tropical Cyclone 09L

DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY

According to the NHC Advisory number 2A

The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion isexpected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a fasternorthward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday.