Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, September 12, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 06L (Francine)…which is located about 50 miles west of Memphis, Tennessee

Tropical Cyclone 07L…which is located about 875 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands

Post-Tropical Cyclone 06L (Francine)

POST-TROPICAL FRANCINE MOVED NORTHWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA, ALABAMA, WESTERN GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

According to Advisory number 18

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to slow down before the post-tropical storm dissipates on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across the Florida Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia.

WIND:  Wind Advisories are in effect across portions of eastern Arkansas, western and middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Georgia. A few gusts to tropical storm force are possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the northern Gulf coast through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 07L

DEPRESSION HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN

According to Advisory number 7

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday.

>>> East of the Leeward Islands:

Invest 94L

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands. The proximity of dry air near the system is
expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

>>> Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend.

Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the north or northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent