Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, September 11, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 06L (Francine)…which is located about 35 miles west-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana

Tropical Cyclone 07L…which is located about 485 miles west of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Cyclone 06L (Francine)

HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE-FORCE OCCURRING IN
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

Francine is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slower
north-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression by late Thursday and a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Gusts to hurricane-force have been occurring in the New Orleans area.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon and tonight, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS…4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border…3-5 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some over-topping of local levees.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 07L

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday.

>>> Central Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 92L

A weak area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is not likely while it moves westward at around 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

>>> East of the Leeward Islands:

Invest 94L

A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even less conducive by this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

>>> Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:

In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the north or northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent