Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, September 10, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 06L (Francine)…which is located about 295 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana

Tropical Cyclone 06L (Francine)

FRANCINE MOVING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY

Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into Mississippi Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area by early Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next few hours. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area on the Alabama coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA…3-5 ft
Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border…3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some over-topping of local levees.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through
Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 93L

A trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

>>> Central Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 92L

An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slight development during the next day or two while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of drier air on Thursday, likely ending its chances for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent