Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, August 16, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Ernesto)…is located about 125 miles south-southwest of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Ernesto)

According to the NHC Advisory number 21…

ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY

Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown tomorrow. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Ernesto’s center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.