Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, August 14, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Ernesto)…is located about 690 miles south-southwest of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Ernesto)

According to the NHC Advisory number 14…

ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE APPROACHING BERMUDA

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday. A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S and British Virgin Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.