Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, August 13, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Ernesto)…is located about 40 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Ernesto)

According to the NHC Advisory number 10A…

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM ERNESTO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER
PUERTO RICO

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (25 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later this morning and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station (XCUL) on Culebra recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust of 86 mph (139 km/h). A NOAA Saildrone located about 70 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica and across the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.