Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, August 12, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Ernesto)…is located about 100 miles southeast of Antigua

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Ernesto)

According to the NHC Advisory number 6A…

ERNESTO TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS

Ernesto is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:

Windward Islands…1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola…2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.