By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, December 4, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical cyclone 08B (Michaung)…is located approximately 74 NM north of Chennai, India – Final Warning
Tropical cyclone 03P…is located approximately 183 NM west of Honiara, Solomon Islands
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.
From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
Central North Pacific:
The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.
Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
North Indian Ocean
Tropical cyclone 08B (Michaung) – Final Warning
According to the JTWC warning number 8, sustained winds were 60 knots…with gusts to 75 knots
As depicted in animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and radar imagery, tropical cyclone 08B has continued to consolidate with tightly-curved banding wrapping into a formative ragged eye. A color composite microwave image reveals a well-defined microwave eye.
Tropical cyclone 08B is forecast to track poleward along the western periphery of a north-south oriented ridge through 48 hours. The system should intensify slightly over the next 12 hours due to the favorable environmental conditions, with a peak of 65 knots anticipated by 12 hours. After 12 hours, TC 08B will gradually weaken as it skirts the eastern coast of India with landfall expected near 24 hours.
After landfall, the system will rapidly weaken and dissipate, as it tracks inland and recurves northeastward, interacting with the mid-latitude westerlies and increasing vertical wind shear. The remnants could possibly track over the northern Bay of Bengal after day 4, but are not expected to regenerate due to unfavorable conditions and strong upper-level westerlies.
Southwest Pacific Ocean…
Tropical cyclone 03P
According to the JTWC warning number 1, sustained winds were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots