Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, July 12, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones, although the JTWC is investigating an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 287 NM east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Central and Western East Pacific:

A tropical wave south of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.

The wave is expected to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 mph during the next few days.

Development of the wave, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves across the central and western portion of the basin next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Central North Pacific:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

>>> Western Pacific…

Invest 99W

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a strong mid-level circulation center near 13.0N 113.3E, with extensive deep convective banding over the southern semicircle associated with a southwesterly wind surge event. A microwave image shows disorganized clusters of deep convection with no discernable low-level circulation center. However, another image reveals an elongated, weak circulation embedded within the monsoon trough, with a swath of 20 to 25 knot southwesterly winds displaced well to the south (greater than 180 NM).

Upper-level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with strong equatorward outflow offset by moderate to high (20-25 knots) vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are warm.

Global models indicate a west-northwestward to northwestward track toward Vietnam over the next two days, with slow development into a tropical depression.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.