Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, July 13, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones, although the JTWC is investigating an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 170 NM east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Central and Western East Pacific:

A tropical wave located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western portion of the basin during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Central North Pacific:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

>>> Western Pacific…

Invest 99W

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an exposed low-level circulation (llc) near 14.6N 111.2E embedded within a very broad region of cyclonic turning, with fragmented convective banding over the periphery. A microwave image shows disorganized convective banding with no discernable low-level circulation center. Another image reveals a broad core of weak winds (less than 10 knots), with an extensive swath of 20 to 25 knot west-southwesterly winds displaced over 250 NM south of the center.

Upper-level analysis indicates a marginal environment, with increasing east-northeasterly flow over the core offset slightly by moderate equatorward outflow. However, vertical wind shear remains moderate to high (20-30 knots), which is hindering convective development. Sea surface temperatures are conducive.

Global models indicate a northwestward track toward Vietnam over the next 36 hours with slow development into a weak tropical depression.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.