Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, July 14, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 03W, which is located approximately 67 NM north-northwest of Da Nang, Vietnam – Final Warning
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western portion of the basin through mid- to late-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent
Central North Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas
>>> Western Pacific…
Tropical Cyclone 03W – Final Warning
According to the JTWC Advisory number 3, sustained winds are 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an ill-defined fully-exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). The majority of associated convection remains disorganized and isolated throughout the western periphery of the low-level circulation along the coastline of Vietnam.
Another image revealed a broad circulation with a small swath of 25 knot winds between 65-70 NM to the northeast of the assessed circulation center, however, the center is flanked by large areas of 20 knot swaths throughout the western and northeastern quadrants. Coastal and ship surface observations indicated average winds between 13-18 knots.
The overall environment is assessed as unfavorable due to 25-30 knot vertical wind shear and impending frictional effects due to interaction with coastal Vietnam over the next 12 to 24 hours.
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 623 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a compact, developing low-level circulation with formative banding. A microwave image depicts curved banding over the western quadrant of the llc. A partial image shows 10-15 knot southerly winds over the eastern semi-circle of a broad circulation.
Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions with low to moderate (10-20) vertical wind shear, good equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models indicate steady development with a west-northwestward track over the next two days.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.