Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, July 15, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Western East Pacific:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could form around mid-week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western part of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

Central North Pacific:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

>>> Western Pacific…

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 532 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a disorganized, slowly consolidating low-level circulation. A microwave image depicts curved low-level cloud lines with sparse associated convection.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions with low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear, good poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic and ensemble models indicate slow steady development with a west-northwestward track over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.  

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.