Current Snapshot

strong>The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, July 18, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.

Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

>>> Western Pacific…

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 759 NM east of Manila, Philippines.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad, weakly-defined low-level circulation with disorganized deep convection sheared to the west. A color composite microwave image reveals curved banding displaced over the northwest quadrant, with no discernable low level circulation center. Surface obs indicate 5-10 knots of wind around the area.

Upper-level analysis indicates 91W is located in a marginal environment with high vertical wind shear (25-30 knots), offset by broad easterly diffluent flow.

Global models indicate a west-northwestward track with slow development over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92W…which is located approximately 277 NM north-northwest of Palau.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an elongated area of turning with persistent convection obscuring the center. Formative cloud bands wrap towards the center of the system from the northwest. Both poleward and equatorward outflow is made evident by the cirrus filaments flowing in either direction.

Upper-level analysis indicates 92W is located in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), poleward and equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate a northwestward track with robust development over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.