Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, July 20, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 04W…is located approximately 429 NM southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi)…is located approximately 589 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Central and Western East Pacific:

A tropical wave located well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western portions of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

>>> Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 04W

According to the JTWC advisory number 6, sustained winds were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical depression 04W as appearing to consolidate over the past 6 hours. The system remains broad, but convection is becoming a bit more localized to the center of the system.

Environmental analysis indicates that 04W is in a favorable environment characterized by moderate equatorward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TD 04W is forecast to continue tracking northwestward throughout the forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a ridge positioned to the northeast. 04W is forecast to peak at 45 knots around 36 hours. The short window of intensification before landfall will be the preventative factor in any further intensification.

After 36 hours, landfall over Hinan will start a weakening trend that persists for the remainder of the forecast period. Once the system makes landfall along the southern coast of China it will quickly dissipate.

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi)

According to the JTWC advisory number 6, sustained winds were 45 knots…with gusts to 55 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical depression 05W (Gaemi) with more pronounced deep convection that is beginning to build over the center of the low-level circulation center (llcc). The llcc is still slightly offset to the east of the deep convection but appears to have become more vertically aligned over the past 6 hours. Easterly shear continues to be evident, with models suggesting around 20 knots currently.

Environmental analysis indicates that 05W is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by good poleward outflow aloft enhanced by a tutt cell located to the east-northeast of the system, warm sea surface temperatures, slightly offset by the low to moderate (15-20 knot) easterly shear.

TD 05W is forecast to continue tracking northwestward along the southern periphery of the ridge through 24 hours. After 24 hours, the system is forecast to take a more north-northwestward track as the ridge reorients to a north-south orientation in response to a mid-latitude trough which propagates over the Korean Peninsula. 05W is anticipated to continue along this track through 96 hours when ridging over eastern China takes over the steering and drives the system back more northwestward.

Concerning the intensity forecast, 05W is forecast to gradually intensify over the next 72 hours to around 75 knots due to warm sea surface temperatures, although will be hindered by high vertical wind
shear values (20-25 knots) during the period. After 72 hours, vertical
wind shear values are expected to drop drastically and will allow for more robust intensification with a peak intensity forecast to be around
100 knots at 96 hours.

Near the end of the forecast period, 05W is forecast to begin weakening with cooler sea surface temperatures and land interaction with eastern China becoming a factor.