Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, July 22, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Prapiroon)…is located approximately 100 NM east-northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi)…is located approximately 359 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Central and Western East Pacific:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western portions of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

>>> Offshore Southwestern Mexico:

An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave.

Some development of this system is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific:

Approximately 950 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern portion of the central Pacific basin is associated with a trough of low pressure.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some slow development during the next 24 hours.

The disturbance is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of increasing shear. Strong shear will inhibit further development of this system mid-week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

>>> Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Prapiroon) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC advisory number 14, sustained winds were 45 knots…with gusts to 55 knots.

Aanimated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has continued to become disorganized and weak after making landfall. The associated convection is dislocated southwest of the low-level circulation center (llcc) due to elevated 25-30 knot wind that is forecast to continue over the next 48 hours. While over land, the system is forecast to recurve, and may potentially redevelop beyond the forecast period while in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Current JTWC intensity guidance indicates continuous weakening and an unlikely scenario where the disturbance would redevelop due to elevated vertical wind shear (greater than 25 knots) that is expected to persist in the region for the next five days. Existing elements that would favor redevelopment would be elevated ocean heat content in the Gulf of Tonkin, sea surface temperatures, and variations in the orientation of the subtropical ridge potentially deviating the current track.

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi)

According to the JTWC advisory number 14, sustained winds were 80 knots…with gusts to 100 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts typhoon 05W (Gaemi) as having persistent building convection over the center of the obscured low-level circulation center (llcc). Banding features can be seen along the southern and western sectors, wrapping into the center. The northern periphery of the system seems to still feel the effects of the presence of a tongue of dry air that is placed just north of the llcc, slightly hindering convective development at the moment.

Environmental analysis indicates that 05W is in a favorable environment for intensification characterized by moderate equatorward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TY 05W is forecast to continue tracking north-northwestward along the western periphery of a north-south oriented ridge placed to its east through 36 hours. After 36 hours, ridging extending across eastern China will take over as the steering mechanism and drive 05W westward through 96 hours.

The system is forecast to make landfall along the eastern coast of China, northwest of Taiwan, near 72 hours. After making landfall, 05W is expected to rapidly weaken and the low-level steering pattern will push the system poleward as it dissipates.

Regarding the intensity forecast, 05W is forecast to continue to intensify through 48 hours, as vertical wind shear is anticipated to continue dropping. High sea surface temperatures re going to be large factors in the intensification of 05W. The peak intensity of 90 knots is forecast to occur around 36 hours, just south of Ishigakijima, before the westward turn is initiated.

After 48 hours, vertical wind shear will rise to above 25 knots and sea surface temperatures will drop, which will begin the weakening trend of 05W. However, at landfall, 05W is forecast to still be very close to typhoon strength. After landfall, the system will deteriorate in response to terrain interaction and will dissipate near the end of the forecast period.