Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, July 23, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Prapiroon)…is located approximately 100 NM east-northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi)…is located approximately 137 NM southeast of Taipei, Taiwan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Central and Western East Pacific:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central and western portions of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

>>> Offshore Southwestern Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become slightly better organized since yesterday.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development over the next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

>>> Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Prapiroon) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC advisory number 14, sustained winds were 45 knots…with gusts to 55 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has continued to become disorganized and weak after making landfall. The associated convection is dislocated southwest of the low-level circulation center (llcc) due to elevated 25-30 knot wind that is forecast to continue over the next 48 hours. While over land, the system is forecast to recurve, and may potentially redevelop beyond the forecast period while in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Current JTWC intensity guidance indicates continuous weakening and an unlikely scenario where the disturbance would redevelop due to elevated vertical wind shear (greater than 25 knots) that is expected to persist in the region for the next five days. Existing elements that would favor redevelopment would be elevated ocean heat content in the Gulf of Tonkin, sea surface temperatures, and variations in the orientation of the subtropical ridge potentially deviating the current track.

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi)

According to the JTWC advisory number 18, sustained winds were 120 knots…with gusts to 145 knots.

Due to the decreased vertical wind shear and improved radial outflow, typhoon 05W has flirted with eye formation over the past few hours. Currently, animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a compact, symmetric core with tightly curved banding wrapping into the center. A microwave image reveals the bulk of the deep convective banding over the eastern and southern semicircles, with a defined low-level circulation center or notch positioned along the southwestern edge of the core convection.

Upper-level analysis indicates a highly favorable environment with robust eastward outflow, enhanced by the tutt positioned to the east, and very strong, broad equatorward outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content values remain very high and supportive for rapid intensification.

Typhoon 05W is forecast to gradually turn northwestward to west northwestward over the next 36 hours as the steering influence transitions to the ridge extension to the north.

Due to the highly favorable environmental conditions and developing eye, rapid intensification (ri) is expected through 18 hours with a peak intensity of 120 knots at 12 hours. Near 24 hours, vertical wind shear will increase as the system makes landfall, with rapid weakening as the system tracks over northern Taiwan and across the Taiwan Strait.

After TY 05W makes landfall over southeast China near 48 hours, a series of major shortwave troughs will dig into northeast China weakening and reorienting the ridge, allowing TY 05W to turn more northwestward. The system will rapidly weaken with dissipation expected no later than 96 hours.