Tropical Cyclone 02E (Bud) / Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi) – Pacific
Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, July 24, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 02E (Bud)…is located about 435 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi)…is located approximately 71 NM west of Taipei, Taiwan

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone Bud

BUD MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS

Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

>>> Western East Pacific:

A tropical wave located more than one thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is associated with some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Development of this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western portion of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days...low…near 0 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

>>> Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Gaemi)

According to the JTWC advisory number 22, sustained winds were 75 knots…with gusts to 90 knots.

As depicted in animated radar imagery, typhoon 05W has tracked erratically over the past six hours, initially deflecting southward, tracking parallel to the north-south oriented mountain range along the northeast coast of Taiwan. Over the past few hours, the system is looping cyclonically back to the north.

TY 05W has maintained a small eye in radar imagery. However, animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the rapid loss of the well-defined eye feature and also reveals significant weakening of the core convection due to prolonged interaction with land.

A microwave image reveals a more asymmetric core surrounding an oblong microwave eye feature, with the bulk of the deep convective banding confined to the southern semicircle. Surface observations are unavailable near the center at this time.

Environmental conditions have degraded slightly with increasing vertical wind shear (15-20 knots) offset by robust radial outflow and warm sea surface temperature values.

Typhoon 05W is forecast to quickly complete the cyclonic loop and will track generally west-northwestward making landfall within the next few hours. Then the system will accelerate west-northwestward as it tracks across northern Taiwan, weakening rapidly, with likely de-coupling of the low-level circulation center (llcc) and the upper-level circulation center.

A leeside jump in the llcc position may occur as the system emerges over the Taiwan strait near 12 hours, which is typical of Taiwan-crossing typhoons. After 12 hours, the system is expected to gradually become vertically aligned as it tracks across the Taiwan Strait with landfall over southeast China anticipated near 24 hours.

As TY 05W tracks inland, it will weaken rapidly and turn northwestward toward a break in the ridge associated with a series of major shortwave troughs. Dissipation is expected by 72 hours.