Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, July 26, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle of next week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of next week.

This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

>>> Western East Pacific:

Another area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Some slow development of this system is possible during the middle and latter parts of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

>>> Western Pacific…

Invest 95W

An area of disturbed weather is located approximately 51 NM west-southwest of Palau.

Animated visible satellite imagery depicts a broad, fully exposed low-level circulation (llc) with disorganized convection flaring to the north. A microwave image also depicts a broad, weakly-defined llc with no convective structure. Another image shows no defined circulation with a trough over the center, extending northward. Additionally, winds near the center are light (5-10 knots), with a swath of 15-20 knot winds displaced over 200 NM to the north-northeast. Surface observations from Koror City
indicate south-southeasterly winds at 5-10 knots.

Upper-level analysis indicates unfavorable conditions for development with high (30-35 knots) northerly vertical wind shear and upper-level convergent flow.

Global models indicate no significant development of 95W, however, the global models do weakly develop another disturbance in 12-24 hours further north near 13N 130E (now Invest 96W). Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles also indicate a disturbance likely forming near the new Invest (96W).

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.