Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, July 28, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a tropical wave.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of the week.

The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

>>> Western East Pacific:

Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this system is possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the western portion of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

>>> South of Central American and Southern Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week.

Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 97W, which is located approximately 478 NM south-southeast of Ishigaki-Jima, Japan

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a wave embedded in the easterlies, with weak low-level cyclonic turning evident and flaring deep convection over the eastern periphery. A microwave image depicts curved shallow banding over the northern semicircle with a line of fragmented deep convection along the eastern flank associated with low-level convergent flow. Another image reveals a sharp wave feature with 5-15 knot core winds and a swath of 15-20 knot easterlies displaced about 60-70 NM to the north. There is currently no evidence of a closed circulation in imagery.

Upper-level analysis indicates a marginal environment with broad diffluent flow and low to moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear.

Global models indicate weak development due to persistent strong east-southeasterly to southeasterly upper-level flow as the disturbance tracks northwestward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.