Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, July 31, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlotta)…is located about 345 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlotta)

CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY

Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a turn to the west by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane by Thursday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are expected to affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend.

>>> Western East Pacific:

Invest 95E

An area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center.

Environmental conditions appear marginal for some development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable, and further development is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

>>> South of Central American and Southern Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during the next couple of days, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development.

A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones