Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, August 3, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlotta)…is located about 760 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Daniel)…is located about 1530 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlotta)

CARLOTTA MOVING TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

Carlotta is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through tonight, with a more steady rate of weakening forecast by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Daniel)

DANIEL DRIFTING FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD SOON

Daniel is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A motion toward the northeast is expected to begin over the next several days with a gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two with some gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

Invest 96E

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico continues to be associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

>>> Well south of the Baja California Peninsula:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with another broad area of low pressure that has formed.

Some development is possible during the next day or two before the system interacts with the disturbance (EP96) to its southeast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

According to the JTWC, an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W, is located approximately 527 NM east of Kadena AB.

The monsoon gyre event which was predicted last week, has started to form in the northern Philippine Sea, after a mid-latitude low pressure area moved south of Japan earlier in the week and has dived southward, while becoming more tropical in nature. Invest 91W has been repositioned from its earlier position in the centroid of the larger rotation, to track the low level circulation center (llcc), which is the anchor point of the monsoon gyre and has become better organized.

Invest 91W itself is expected to track towards the west-southwest over the next few days, but no significant development is expected, as it remains the anchor point of the monsoon gyre and thus not a tropical cyclone. Some elevated winds are possible, especially on the west side of the circulation, due to gradient packing, but otherwise 91W is not expected to pose a significant risk to assets at this time.

The overall gyre circulation is quite large, spanning out to 600 NM or more (based on the radius of the outer most closed isobar). over the next week or two, this gyre will continuously pump out asymmetrical circulations along the southeastern and eastern periphery in a band of elevated, near gale force winds.

Any of these small circulations could reach warning criteria before wrapping up and around the northern side of the gyre. Multiple invest areas will pop-up and disappear during this event, but due to poor performance of the models in this scenario, JTWC will be in a more reactive mode, opening and closing invests as the available data reveals their existence.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.