Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, August 4, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlotta)…is located about 930 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Daniel)…is located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)…is located about 530 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlotta)

CARLOTTA SLOWLY WEAKENING

Carlotta is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or two. Carlotta’s forward motion is forecast to slow down gradually as it becomes a remnant low in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low late Monday or early
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Daniel)

DANIEL BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

Daniel is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of
days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC

The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow generally southward motion is expected to begin later today and continue into Monday. A sharp turn back toward the north is possible by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected today and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight.

The cyclone will then begin to interact with another larger disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate in a few days.

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

Invest 96E

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico continues to be associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

According to the JTWC, an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W, is located approximately 406 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB.

The monsoon gyre event is now firmly entrenched across the northern Philippine Sea, with Invest 91W being the anchor point of a very large cyclonic rotation, with a diameter now exceeding 1400 NM. Invest 91W is tracking towards the west-southwest, and will continue to do so over the next few days, but no significant development is expected at this time. Some elevated winds are possible, especially on the west side of the circulation, and the presence of Invest 93W roughly 40 NM north of 91W is racing down from the north and will over the next couple of days merge into the large pressure field associated with 91W.

But otherwise, 91W is not expected to pose a significant risk to assets at this time. Over the next week or two, this gyre will continuously pump out asymmetrical circulations along the southeastern and eastern periphery in a band of elevated, near gale force winds, such as invest 92W currently moving northward into the far northeastern corner of the gyre circulation.

Any of the now and future small circulations could reach warning criteria before wrapping up and around the northern side of the gyre or merging into the larger anchor circulation. multiple invest areas will pop-up and disappear during this event, but due to poor performance of the models in this scenario, JTWC will be in a more reactive mode, opening and closing invests as the available data reveals their existence.

Across the span of the gyre, the environment is generally favorable with warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow aloft and relatively low shear, but the environmental assessment will vary based on the exact positioning of the invest areas within the gyre.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.