Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, August 5, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlotta)…is located about 1935 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California – Last Advisory

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 04E (Daniel)…is located about 1130 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)…is located about 690 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fabio)…is located about 405 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 03E (Carlotta) – Final Advisory

CARLOTTA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE

Carlotta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is expected to turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The weakening trend will continue, and the system is forecast to dissipate around Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 04E (Daniel)

DANIEL DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC

The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)

EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH

Emilia is moving toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at a faster forward speed on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fabio)

FABIO STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight. Slight weakening is possible by Tuesday night, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> According to the JTWC, an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W, is located approximately 244 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB.

The monsoon gyre event continues to thrive across the northern Philippine Sea with invest 91W hanging on as the anchor point of a very large cyclonic rotation that is starting to condense, with a diameter now slightly hedged over 1200 NM. Invest 91W is tracking towards the west-southwest and will continue to do so over the next few days, where it will eventually become quasi- stationary just south of Okinawa, then start its trek eastward, but no significant development is expected at this time. Some elevated winds are possible, especially on the west side of the circulation as Invest 93W slides down the western side and becomes absorbed into 91W.

Over the next week or two, this gyre will continuously pump out asymmetrical circulations along the southeastern and eastern periphery in a band of elevated, near gale force winds, such as Invest 94W currently moving northward from the far south-eastern corner of the gyre circulation. Any of the now and future small circulations could reach warning criteria before wrapping up and around the northern side of the gyre or merging into the larger anchor circulation.

Multiple invest areas will pop-up and disappear during this event, but due to poor performance of the models in this scenario, JTWC will be in a more reactive mode, opening and closing invests as the available data reveals their existence.

Across the span of the gyre, the environment is generally favorable with warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow aloft and relatively low shear, but the environmental assessment will vary based on the exact positioning of the invest areas within the gyre.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> According to the JTWC, an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94W, is located approximately 655 NM south of Tokyo, Japan.

animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an area of flaring convection, with the central convection being sheared and offset northward from the low level circulation center (llcc). Another satellite imagery shows a broad, poorly organized but defined llcc.

Environmental analysis reveals an area that is marginally favorable for development, with low to moderate (10-20 knot) southerly vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good equatorward outflow aloft.

Global models are in good agreement that 94W will track more northwestward over the next 24 hours with the stronger winds concentrated along the eastern peripheries.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.