Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, August 6, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)…is located about 615 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fabio)…is located about 725 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 06W…is located approximately 24 NM northwest of Iwo To, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Emilia)

EMILIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH

Emilia is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected by Wednesday morning, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fabio)

FABIO WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE CIRCULATION OF EMILIA TO ITS SOUTH

Fabio is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio merges with Emilia.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 06W

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a consolidating system that formed along the outer eastern rim of a monsoon gyre. Formative bands, mostly from the southern peripheries, are feeding into the low level circulation center (llcc) that is obscured by an elongated central dense overcast striated along the northern edges by strong southwesterly winds associated with a mid-latitude low to the north anchored just east of Japan. The same strong upper level winds are providing excellent poleward ventilation to the system.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate vertical wind shear, and strong poleward outflow.

TD 06W is expected to track more poleward after 12 hours as the subtropical ridge (str) to the east assumes steering. After 96 hours, it will turn northeastward as it crests and rounds the str axis, the favorable conditions will fuel a gradual intensification to a peak of 55 knots by 72 hours on its closest line of approach to Yokosuka, Japan, approximately 285 NM to the west.

Afterward, increasing vertical wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and dry air intrusion will begin to rapidly erode the system. By 120 hours, TD 06W will be reduced to 30 knots.