Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, May 25, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 01W…is located approximately 885 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Remal)…is located approximately 231 NM south of Kolkata, India

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Western Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01W

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds were running 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts persistent convection obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc) with convective bands wrapping in from both the northwest and southeast. The initial position is placed with high confidence based on radar imagery depicting the circulation in the vicinity of Bohol Island, Philippines.

Tropical storm 01W will continue to round the ridge to the east over the next 24 hours, tracking northwestward initially before curving northeastward. As the ridge acquires a northeast-southwest orientation, the system will track northeastward through the remainder of the forecast.

TS 01W will begin to interact with a mid-latitude trough between 96-120 hours and commence extratropical transition. For the next 24 hours the system will gradually intensify with intermittent land interaction while in the vicinity of the Philippine Islands. Once completely over water, the system will quickly intensify in an environment of low to moderate shear, good poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

As the system begins to interact with the upper-level trough between 48 and 72 hours, and later with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, the environment will become unfavorable with shear increasing significantly and cooler along-track sea surface temperatures poleward of 26N.

Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Remal)

According to the JTWC Warning number 2, sustained winds were running 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts extensive deep convective banding along the southern and eastern peripheries of a broad low-level circulation evident in recent microwave satellite imagery. The system center is mostly devoid of convective activity.

TC 01B is expected to steadily consolidate and intensify as it moves into a narrow zone of low vertical wind shear in the northern portion of the Bay of Bengal under the continued steering influence of deep-layer ridging to the east.

While reduced vertical wind shear, passage over very warm water, and persistent equatorward outflow will support continued intensification, the circulation will take some time to consolidate given its current
broad low-level structure.

Regardless of peak core wind speeds, impacts from disturbed weather associated with TC 01B, including gusty winds and heavy rainfall, will likely be widespread given the size of the system and anticipated landfall around 24 hours. Following landfall, the system will steadily weaken and dissipate below the warning threshold intensity of 35 knots by 48 hours.