Tropical Cyclone 13S (Djoungou) / Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln) / Tropical Cyclone 15P
Friday, February 16, 2024

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, February 16, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Djoungou)…is located approximately 647 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln)…is located approximately 423 NM east-southeast of Darwin, Australia – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 15P…is located approximately 297 NM east-southeast of Rarotonga – Final Warning

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Southwest Pacific Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln) Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a composite radar loop from Mornington Island clearly showed that, over the past six hours, the system has accelerated south-southwestward and made landfall.

The initial intensity is extrapolated from nearby surface wind observations including one from Centre Island, 33 NM to the northwest.

TC 14P is expected to continue southwestward and deeper inland. Land interaction will mostly cause its dissipation by 12 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 15P Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds are 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows an extremely elongated system with disorganized convection that spans 460 NM NW-SE embedded in the southern hemisphere monsoon trough, just south of the south pacific convergence zone.

Analysis indicates a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong dual-outflow offset by moderate to strong vertical wind shear.

TC 15P will continue on its current track under the ridge to the east. The marginal conditions will maintain its current intensity up to 12 hours, before gradually weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures.

Concurrently by 12 hours, the system will commence extra-tropical transition and by 24 hours will become a gale-force cold-core low with an expansive wind field.

 

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Djoungou)

According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds are 65 knots…with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a large system that has once again slowed down as it developed a banding eye.

Analysis indicates a highly favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong dual-channel outflow.

TC 13S will continue east-southeastward then southeastward under the ridge extension to the northeast. The highly favorable environment, enhanced by a pool of high ocean heat content downstream, will fuel a rapid intensification to a peak of 105 knots by 24 hours.

Afterward, cooling sea surface temperatures and diminishing equatorward outflow will gradually weaken the system to 90 knots by 72 hours. Thereafter, the system will begin extra-tropical transition (ett).

Concurrently, as the cyclone drifts deeper into the prevailing westerlies, increasing vertical wind shear (30 knots+) will contribute to rapid erosion and decay with TC Djoungou unchained and decapitated from its deep central convection. By 120 hours, the system will complete ett and transform into a gale-force cold core low with an expanding wind field.