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May
09
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 24S remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 774 NM east of Diego Garcia (Sustained winds of 40 knots,
with gusts to near 50 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 24S, with JTWC positions, segments, and winds…over the South Indian Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 24S, with JTWC positions, segments, and winds…over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 24S continues to churn the waters of the South Indian Ocean, located approximately 774 NM east of the small island of Diego Garcia. This system has tracked south-southeast at a slow 04 knots during the past six hours. Satellite imagery reveals an exposed low level circulation center, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms displaced over the western part of the storm. Surface winds were currently 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots.

TC 24S is located within a marginal environment, under strong easterly vertical wind shear, which is running 30-40 knots (35-46 mph)…although offset by favorable poleward outflow.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) mentions that the strong wind shear is forecast to weaken, allowing for further consolidation, and intensification. TC 24S should peak at about 65 knots (75 mph) by the 72 hour mark, and then gradually weaken thereafter.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the North Indian Ocean…that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours – and TC 24S to this areas south-southwest

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the North Indian Ocean…that has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours – and TC 24S to this areas south-southwest

An area of disturbed weather remains active in the north Indian Ocean, circled in yellow above, to the north-northeast of tropical cyclone 24S. When tropical cyclones form closely together, and in different hemisphere’s like this, they are typically called twins. This hasn’t happened yet, and probably won’t…as the JTWC is now giving this tropical disturbance a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours, down from medium yesterday.

This area of disturbed weather is located approximately 690 NM east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Satellite imagery shows flaring convection, associated with an elongated low level circulation center. This center is showing weakening cyclonic winds, which are now blowing only 10-15 knots (12-17 mph). At the same time, the upper vertical shear is 10-20 knots (12-23 mph). Sea surface temperatures under this disturbance are 28C (82-83F).

 

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico satellite image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
08
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 24S has formed in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 685 NM east of Diego Garcia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 24S, with JTWC positions, segments…over the South Indian Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 24S, with JTWC positions, segments, and winds…over the South Indian Ocean

A newly formed tropical cyclone, TC 24S has developed in the South Indian Ocean, located approximately 685 NM east of the small island of Diego Garcia. This system has tracked east-northeast at a slow 04 knots during the past six hours. Satellite imagery reveals a consolidating low level circulation center. Surface winds were currently 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots.

TC 24S has been nearly stationary over the past 24 hours, as it has continued to gather force, although is forecast to drift slowly south to southwest over the next 24 hours…as it continues to improve its organization and intensity. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast shows TC 24S remaining to the east of Diego Garcia for the time being.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the South Indian Ocean…that has a medium chance of developing within 24 hours - and TC 24S to this areas south

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the North Indian Ocean…that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours – and TC 24S to this areas south-southwest

There’s an area of disturbed weather that’s active in the north Indian Ocean, circled in orange above, to the north-northeast of newly formed tropical cyclone 24S. When tropical cyclones form closely together, and in different hemisphere’s like this…they are typically called twins. This hasn’t happened yet, although the JTWC is giving this tropical disturbance a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours.

This area of disturbed weather is located approximately 600 NM east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Satellite imagery shows formative cloud bands, which are wrapping into the low level circulation center. These convective bands have deepened significantly during the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, low 05-10 knot (6-12 mph) vertical winds exist above this system…along with excellent poleward outflow. Surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots (23-28 mph).

 

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico satellite image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
07
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance in the South Indian Ocean...that has a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance in the South Indian Ocean…that has a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

There continues to be an area in the South Indian Ocean, circled in orange above, that may develop into a significant tropical cyclone. This area, that’s being covered by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is located approximately 665 NM east of Diego Garcia. Satellite imagery shows an elongated, consolidating low level circulation center, with convective banding features. Maximum sustained winds are running 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).

Meanwhile, upper level analysis continues to show a marginal environment, with moderate to strong 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) northerly wind shear.  Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 millibars (~29.6 inches of mercury). The JTWC is giving the potential for the development of this tropical disturbance, within 24 hours…to be medium once again today.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico satellite image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
06
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

South Indian Ocean

There’s an area in the South Indian Ocean, circled in orange above, that will require watching, as it may develop into a significant tropical cyclone. This area, that’s being covered by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is located approximately 870 NM east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Satellite imagery shows an elongated, consolidating low level circulation center, with convective banding features. Additionally, satellite pictures depict an improved, defined circulation, with weak core winds around 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).

Meanwhile, upper level analysis reveals a marginal environment, with moderate to strong 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) northerly wind shear. Nonetheless, the computer weather models continue to show development of this system over the next two days. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 millibars (~29.6 inches of mercury). The JTWC is giving the potential for the development of this tropical disturbance, within 24 hours, to be upgraded to medium…from a low chance yesterday.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico satellite image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
03
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

There are no suspect formation areas that are being looked at today.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico satellite image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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