Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

Feb
03
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 848 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) continues losing strength…while remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows convective banding wrapping tightly into the system center. The area of convection is noticeably deeper and broader in the poleward semi-circle…due to strong diffluent outflow in this region.

TC 07S has continued to weaken over the past 6-hours, while tracking southeastward…and is expected to transition to a more southwestward track.

Steady weakening is anticipated over the next 72 hours, due to increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the storms path.

After 72 hours, Cebile will dissipate more gradually as the circulation will remain separated from the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies to the south.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #33 are estimated be 70 knots…with gusts to 85 knots.


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
02
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 698 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) remains active and is maintaining its strength…although remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the system has maintained a 35 NM eye, even as the central convection continued to slowly unravel and decay.

Upper level analysis indicates the storm remains in a marginal favorable environment, with low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, and strong dual outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures remain warm along the track.

TC Cebile will move generally southeastward during the next 48 hours, thereafter the track will become more southward.

By 120 hours, Cebile will have continued to erode, as wind shear increases and sea surface temperatures cool…leading to dissipation.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #29 are estimated be 105 knots…with gusts to 130 knots.


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
01
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 594 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) remains active and is maintaining its great strength…although remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the system has maintained a ragged 18 NM eye and deep central convection. There appears to be a wobbling motion in the eye, as the system attempts to make a poleward turn.

Upper level analysis indicates the storm is in an area of low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, and robust radial outflow…with a pronounced poleward bias.

TC Cebile is forecast to track southeastward, while favorable environmental conditions will persist, helping to sustain the current intensity over the next 12 hours. Afterwards, wind shear increases and sea surface temperatures decrease…with the storm gradually weakening.

By 120 hours, Cebile will be reduced to 60 knots as it enters the mid-latitudes, and begins extra-tropical transition.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #25 are estimated be 120 knots…with gusts to 145 knots.


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jan
31
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 561 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) remains active and is maintaining its great strength…although remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a symmetric system with a clear eye feature, with a very sharp eyewall and deep convective banding. This eye feature is gradually contracting and becoming smaller.

TC 07S is transiting through a highly favorable environment, with low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures…favoring consistent intensity over the next 24 hours.

TC Cebile is forecast to track westward for the next 36 hours, and then turn poleward and accelerate southeastward through the remainder of the forecast.

After 24 hours, wind shear begins to gradually increase, and outflow begins to weaken. Beyond 72 hours, this weakening will accelerate as the system enters cooler waters and the environment becomes unfavorable.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #21 are estimated be 115 knots…with gusts to 140 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 96P…located approximately 175 NM north-northeast of Willis Island

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jan
30
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 627 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Fehi) is located about 238 NM west-northwest of Kingston Island – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) remains active and has increased its strength…although remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a highly symmetric system with a massive 60 NM eye feature, and radial banding…converging into a strong convective center.

Environmental conditions are very favorable to sustain the current intensity at or around 100 to 110 knots over the next 72 hours. Wind shear is very low, while sea surface temperatures are warm.

TC 07S will drift slowly westward through 72 hours, and then take a turn towards the southeast. This will cause a weakening…as it tracks over cooler sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #17 are estimated be 120 knots…with gusts to 145 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for retiring TC 08S (Fehi)…and an area of disturbed weather

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Fehi) is dissipating over the open ocean…and has been given its Final Warning

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center, and a large comma-shaped area of convective activity poleward and eastward of the center.

Environmental analysis indicates the system is moving through an unfavorable environment, with strong 35-40 knot wind shear, while moving over marginal sea surface temperatures.

TC Fehi is tracking rapidly southward, and should complete extra-tropical transition within 12 hours. The system could intensify slightly during the time…peaking at 40 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #11 are estimated be 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 95P…located approximately 33 NM south of Tonga

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a broad, elongated low level circulation with sparse associated convection.

Wind shear in the vicinity of 95P is moderate to high at 20-25 knots, although has been decreasing over the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warm and will support development.

The models predict possible development around 48 hours into a subtropical system…tracking towards the east in the near term.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Fehi) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Older posts «

» Newer posts