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May
15
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/hicbsat.gif

However, an area of disturbed weather remains active in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico…despite the fact that we’re still two weeks away from the beginning of the hurricane season

Four of the past six years have had named storms before June 1st, including 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2017. Two of those years… 2012 and 2016…featured two named tropical storms before June 1st.

This disturbance is running out of time for a tropical or even subtropical depression to form. Marginal sea water temperatures over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will prevent organization…and this system will migrate onshore over the Gulf coast by Wednesday.

Here’s a looping satellite image of this area of disturbed weather

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days.

Here’s the current radar image over and near Florida

Here’s the Precipitation Outlook map through Friday

This system will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days while the low moves generally northward.

This tropical moisture will also prompt downpours that result in rainfall totals of 1-3 inches across other parts of the Southeast…and eventually into the Northeast later this week. This rainfall is much-needed in central and southern Florida, as well as parts of Georgia and South Carolina, where drought conditions have recently developed.

According to the NHC, a broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas.

This system has not become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

May
14
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at this time

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a weak tropical disturbance circled in yellow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91A/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

However, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, which is being referred to as Invest 91A…located approximately 280 NM southeast of Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this area of disturbed weather.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

The JTWC reports that satellite imagery depicts an elongated circulation, with small pockets of flaring convection located to the south.

Invest 91A is located in an area of limited divergence aloft, although low 5-10 knot wind shear, and sea water temperatures that are favorably warm for development.

Meanwhile, models maintain tight troughing or a small circulation in the Arabian Sea, and some predict development after 3-days…and it moves westward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

May
14
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a weak tropical disturbance circled in yellow

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/hicbsat.gif

However, an area of disturbed weather is active in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico…despite the fact that we’re two weeks away from the beginning of the hurricane season

The National Hurricane Center currently gives it a low chance of development over the next 5 days. If it were to reach tropical storm strength however…it would take on the name Alberto.

Here’s a looping satellite image of this area of disturbed weather

Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days.

Here’s the current radar image over and near Florida

Here’s the Precipitation Outlook map through Friday

Much of Florida can expect 1-3 inches of rain through this new week. Locally higher amounts are expected in heavier thunderstorms, and totals of 3-7 inches are possible in southeastern and eastern Florida.

This tropical moisture will also prompt downpours that result in rainfall totals of 1-3 inches across other parts of the Southeast…and eventually into the Northeast later this week.

According to the NHC, a deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern Georgia.

Although this system could still acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

May
13
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/hicbsat.gif

However, an area of disturbed weather is active in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico…despite the fact that we’re two weeks away from the beginning of the hurricane season

A recent NOAA satellite image of the cloud field associated with this disturbance

Here’s the current sea surface temperature map

Regardless of development, the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low pressure system will carry large amounts of tropical moisture over Florida…resulting in very heavy rains.

Here’s the NOAA Precipitation Outlook map through the next week

A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula, is associated with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level low.

This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

May
13
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 04W is located about 131 miles northwest of Agrihan – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclone 04W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/nwpac/ir4-l.gif

Tropical Depression 04W is dissipating over the open ocean…well north of Guam – Final Warning

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real time wind profile for this tropical depression

This depression has decreased in strength to 25 knots, with complete dissipation within 20 hours…with only 20 knots left.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #8 are estimated at 25 knots…with gusts to 35

 

Eastern North Pacific

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04W – Final Warning

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

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